Unemployment in South Africa: Trends, causes and cures

The main macro‐estimates of unemployment rates in South Africa clearly show both cyclical sensitivity and a secularly rising upward trend, presenting a striking similarity with the United Kingdom and other OECD countries. The rising long‐term trend in the unemployment rate is not confined to Blacks but probably applies to Whites, Coloureds and Asians also. It has been mainly due to a decline in the demand for labour caused by a falling rate of capital accumulation rather than by rising capital‐intensity. The slower rate of capital accumulation stems primarily from forces originating abroad, which have affected the world economy as a whole, though the fluctuating gold price has aggravated our problems. Policy in the spheres of international trade and monetary relations is therefore crucial and there are reasons for concern over current thinking in these areas.