Clean Vehicle Research: LCA and Policy Measures (CLEVER)

In this context, the CLEVER project has the intention to analyse and answer these different questions. The objectives of the project can be described as follows, with a focus on the passenger car market: * Create an objective image of the environmental impact of vehicles with conventional and alternative fuels and/or drive trains; * Investigate which price instruments and other policy measures are possible to realise a sustainable vehicle choice; * Examine the external costs and verify which barriers exist for the introduction of clean vehicle technologies on the Belgian market; * Analyse the global environmental performances of the Belgian car fleet; * Formulate recommendations for the Belgian government to stimulate the purchase and use of clean vehicles. To achieve these objectives, a multidisciplinary approach has been used, in which the different tasks are performed by the different partners. On the basis of a literature review, a preliminary "state-of-the-art" has been carried out on different topics, more specifically on vehicle technologies, existing environmental vehicle assessments, policy measures and consumer behaviour for the purchase of cars. To compare the environmental impacts of vehicles with different conventional (diesel, petrol) and alternative fuels (LPG, CNG, alcohols, biofuels, biogas, hydrogen) and/or drive trains (internal combustion engines and battery, hybrid and fuel cell electric vehicles), a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is performed, within a Belgian context. LCA studies the environmental aspects and potential impacts of a product throughout its life from raw material acquisition through production, use and disposal and presents the advantage of being standardized (ISO 14040 & 14062, 2006). Next to the well-to-wheel emissions (related to fuel production, transportation and fuel use in the vehicle), which is assessed in the Ecoscore methodology, the LCA also includes cradle-to-grave emissions (related directly and indirectly to vehicle production and end-of-life processing of the vehicle). The final aim is to develop a methodology with a per-model applicability. A detailed description of the different tasks of the LCA approach (software selection, inventory and data collection, classification and characterisation, sensitivity and probability analysis, scientific validation of the Ecoscore approach) is described further in chapter 2. To compare the cost-efficiency of different vehicle technologies, the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) methodology has been used. From a user perspective, the LCC is often a crucial factor. Life cycle costs are all the anticipated costs associated with a car throughout its life and include all user expenses to own and use vehicles. The LCC consists of the vehicle financial costs (purchase price, governmental support, registration tax), fuel operational costs and non fuel operational costs (yearly taxation, insurance, technical control, battery, tyres and maintenance). The used method within the LCC analysis is the net present value method as one has to accurately combine the initial expenses related to the purchase of the car with the future expenses related to the use of the car. A further description of the methodology and results of this task are described in chapter 3. The proposed policy measures will only be effective if they induce the right behavioural responses. That is why in a first phase a literature review of price elasticities has been performed. Additionally, price sensitivities are empirically derived through the development of a "green vehicle demand model", which enables to estimate the distribution of respondents willing to switch to a more environmentally friendly car, based on different weighted pricing levels of combined policy measures (chapter 4). The different tasks are supported with inputs of state-of-the-art external cost factors. The "ExternE" methodology for the calculation of external costs of transportation is updated and adapted for its use in a Belgian context. Attention has been paid to the best methods and their updating, in order to quantify the external effects associated with new vehicle technologies. Thanks to the knowledge of the externalities, the environmental cost can be integrated into the life cycle cost analysis of new vehicles. This approach allows a complete comparison with conventional vehicles, based on a full-cost approach (chapter 5). The main barriers impeding the development of alternative vehicles (with alternative fuels and propulsion systems) in Belgium as well as their relative importance have been identified. This objective is approached through the consultation of the different groups of stakeholders. Barriers can be grouped into the following categories: economic, technical, psychological, legislative, political, institutional, environmental/societal, market, supply and demand barriers. Strong relationships exist between the different barriers; in fact, they are integrated into an aggregation of complex causal connections. The second original objective is to derive a systemic scheme representing the inter-relations between barriers. This allows for a more global view on the barriers, which is essential for drawing effective policy measures (chapter 6). Price instruments are suitable to integrate the environmental performance of vehicles in this purchase decision. The CLEVER project allows investigating possible policies towards a more sustainable car choice (chapter 7). Implementation pathways for a consistent policy for the promotion of cleaner vehicles are being developed. These possible policies are price policies (road pricing, fiscal measures, modulated vehicle taxation, parking prices, subsidies...), regulatory policy, etc. The investigated policy instruments not only focus on individual vehicle-buying behaviour but also on policies towards companies and public authorities. The pathways have been developed based on the analysis of the environmental impact, the barriers for the purchase and use of cleaner vehicles. This was done in parallel with the international review of policy measures and related research and consultation of the different target groups in Belgium. The road emission model from VITO has been used to assess the global environmental performance of the whole Belgian vehicle fleet. From this model the Ecoscore module is applied to the different vehicle categories (defined by fuel, age, engine size, etc.) of the road emission model to result in a combined Ecoscore-emissions-road model. This allows generating an indicator of the global environmental performance of the fleet and making projections on how this will evolve in time in different scenarios. The projections have been done for the years 2010 up to 2030 in steps of 5 years, with the mid-term timeframe being 2020 and the long-term timeframe being 2030. Three scenarios have been calculated within these timeframes, and one additional, more visionary, scenario has been calculated solely for 2060. Finally, by means of a multi-criteria analysis (MCA), the scenarios (baseline, realistic, progressive), elaborated in the previous chapters, have been evaluated on several criteria for which input has been gathered throughout the other tasks of the CLEVER project (chapter 8). For this purpose, a combination of the PROMETHEE methodology and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used. The overall aim is not to categorize the single best scenario, but to formulate suitable policy recommendations to the decision makers which take into consideration the weak and the strong points of the considered scenarios. To finalise this project, the main conclusions of all the different tasks, gathered by the different partners, have been combined in the last section of this report (chapter 9). In this chapter, answers are formulated on the different research questions of the project, which are the basis of recommendations for policy makers on how to stimulate the purchase and use of clean vehicles in a Belgian context.