Lagranžijanske simulacije onečišćenja pod uvjetima bure i juga nad srednjim Jadranom pomoću FLEXPART-WRF modela

Urban agglomeration around Kaštela Bay is an area with the second-highest population in Croatia. In this master's thesis, characteristics of dispersion of pollutants across the Eastern Adriatic are examined. FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model (FLEXPART) is used to simulate the movement of particles during bora and sirocco wind episodes provided by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. During the bora event, plume moved towards the west-south-west, although not constantly with the same precision due to the bora being a gusty wind. Maximum concentrations were in the Split area, closest to the release points. Concentrations higher than 2 μg did not extend past Šolta island, some 20 kilometres away. The plume was quickly dispersed vertically, up to 6 km, in the span of 12 hours after the start of the event. The plume during the sirocco case moved towards the north-north-west, mostly over Kaštela, and it exhibited lower vertical dispersion up to 2 km compared to the bora event. Total mass in the domain was lower, indicating higher average wind velocity since the same mass was emitted in both cases. Concentrations higher than 2 μg are simulated in Kaštela, Split, Šolta, Trogir, and even 60 kilometres north-west of the release points.
Urbana aglomeracija oko Kaštelanskog zaljeva je po naseljenosti druga najveća u Hrvatskoj. U ovom radu su proučene karakteristike disperzije polutanata nad istočnim Jadranom. FLEXible PARTicle disperzijski model (FLEXPART) je korišten za simulaciju kretanja čestica tokom bure i juga. Ulazni parametri su meteorološki podaci dobiveni iz simulacija Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modelom. Tokom bure oblak se kreće u smjeru zapad-jug-zapad, iako ne konzistentno, jer bura puše na mahove. Najveće koncentracije su izmjerene na području Splita, blizu ispusta. Koncentracije veće od 2 μg se ne pojavljuju dalje od Šolte, udaljene 20-ak kilometara. Oblak se vertikalno miješa do 2 kilometra visine 12 sati nakon početka događaja. U slučaju juga, oblak se kreće u smjeru sjever-sjever-zapad, najviše preko Kaštela i kreće se niže te miješa sporije nego za bure. Ukupna masa polutanata u domeni je manja u slučaju bure nego juga što daje naslutiti veću prosječnu brzinu juga od bure pošto je jednaka masa puštena u atmosferu u oba slučaja. Koncentracije više od 2 μg pojavljuju se u Kaštelima, Splitu, Šolti, Trogiru te čak 60 kilometara sjeverozapadno od točke ispusta.