The role of unobserved heterogeneity in transition to higher parity : evidence from Italy using Multiscopo survey

The paper uses data from 2003 Multiscopo Italian Survey to estimate education effects on fertility and in particular to determine how and to what degree does unobserved heterogeneity influence the estimated effects, that is to say how unobserved heterogeneity might bias estimates of effects of education on transition to 1st, 2nd and 3rd births. The peculiarity of this study is the implementation of a multiprocess approach, which allows for a broader and more efficient view of the phenomenon, studying jointly the transition to first, second and third or higher order births. In doing this I will use control variables, in particular educational level of the mother and her siblings (i.e. partner and grandmother), to detect possible influences of education in childbearing timing. Moreover, this topic has not yet been analysed using Italian data, in particular using Multiscopo Survey data and it may produce interesting comparisons with regard to other European countries, where the topic has already been addressed. In this study I will prove that number of siblings is the variable, which has a significative and relevant effect in all the models considered and that women partner’s education has an up-and-down effect on transition to childbearing. Moreover, the inclusion of unobserved characteristics of women has an important role in understanding transition to childbearing, being positive and significant.