Documentation of baseline and policy scenarios to be assessed with Prototypes 2 and 3

SEAMLESS integrated project, EU 6th Framework Programme, contract no.010036-2.; International audience; This deliverable describes the construction of baseline and policy scenarios in Test Case 1 and 2 for the second and third prototypes of SEAMLESS-IF. It provides details of the methodology used in SEAMLESS-IP to build scenarios, and the data and parameters needed for the implementation of these scenarios in SEAMLESS-IF. These scenarios will be used to test the second and third prototypes of the integrated framework and its individual tools, especially the two backbone model chains: Data-base-APES-FSSIM-Indicators and Data-bases-APES-FSSIM-EXPAMOD-CAPRI-Indicators. The report is divided in two parts. The first part gives an overview of what we, in the SEAMLESS integrated project, define as a scenario. It also identifies the main elements for defining scenarios in agreement with the literature. After this overview, the steps defining scenarios in SEAMLESS-IF are identified and explained. The last section of the first part applies this approach to four typical user’s problems that SEAMLESS-IF is designed to address: i) Green intensification at regional scale in animal-based farming systems (Auvergne), ii) Nitrate Directive at regional scale in crop based farming systems (Midi-Pyrenees), iii) Trade liberalisation at EU scale and iv) WTO and cotton policies in a LDC country (Sikasso and Koutiala regions of Mali). The second part of the report details the scenarios used in SEAMLESS-IF for Test Case 1 and 2 at EU and regional scales. The scenarios that can be developed depend on the availability of data as well as the model chain used for assessing the impact of the different EU policies and technological innovations. It proposes a template for the baseline and the policy scenarios compatible with the SEAMLESS-IF structure. More details on the parameters (premiums and constraints) of scenarios to be implemented by WP6 with prototype 2 and 3 are given in three sets of annexes