The world economy [November 1986]

Recent developments in the UK economy suggest that the slowdown of growth in 1985 may only have been a temporary phenomenon. External events are continuing to play a significant role. Yet it is the trends within the domestic economy that are a major source of unease. Underlying inflationary pressures continue to operate via the relatively fast growth in average earnings, low productivity growth, the growth of private sector liquidity and the recent significant decrease in the value of sterling. An increase in the growth of non-oil imports adds to fears for the current account of the balance of payments. Perceptions of uncertainty in Government policy particularly towards the exchange rate are a continuing cause for concern.