The British economy [March 1992]

The recession in non-oil GDP has continued for six quarters with the real value of output falling by just under 4% since the second quarter of 1990. The present recession is therefore the longest since the Second World War, although the fall is still not as rapid, or as deep, as in the 1979-81 recession where the decline in non-oil GDP from peak to trough occurred over five quarters and amounted to 6.2%. Considerable uncertainty exists over the course of demand over the next few months, with consumption unlikely to exhibit strong growth. The likely outturn for GDP growth during 1992 is for an increase of no more than 1%. Macroeconomic trends, earnings and productivity, and unemployment levels are also analysed.