Hierarchical PLS Modeling for Predicting the Binding of a Comprehensive Set of Structurally Diverse Protein−Ligand Complexes

A new approach is presented for predicting ligand binding to proteins using hierarchical partial-least-squares regression to latent structures (Hi-PLS). Models were based on information from the 2002 release of the PDBbind database containing (after in-house refinement) high-resolution X-ray crystallography and binding affinity (Kd or Ki) data for 612 protein−ligand complexes. The complexes were characterized by four different descriptor blocks:  three-dimensional (3D) structural descriptors of the proteins, protein−ligand interactions according to the Validate scoring function, binding site surface areas, and ligand 2D and 3D descriptors. These descriptor blocks were used in Hi-PLS models, generated using both linear and nonlinear terms, to relate the characterizations to pKd/i. The results show that each of the four descriptor blocks contributed to the model, and the predictions of pKd/i of the internal test set gave a root-mean-square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 1.65. The data were further divided according to the structural classification of the proteins, and Hi-PLS models were constructed for the resulting subclasses. The models for the four subclasses differed considerably in terms of both their ability to predict pKd/i (with RMSEPs ranging from 0.8 to 1.56) and the descriptor block that had the strongest influence. The models were validated with an external test set of 174 complexes from the 2003 release of the PDBbind database. The overall results show that the presented Hi-PLS methodology could facilitate the difficult task of predicting binding affinity.