Trends in mortality for cutaneous malignant melanoma in Belgium

Background and methods: Changes over time of mortality rates from cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) in Belgium were analysed, based on people (n = 3695) aged 25-84 years, who died of CMM from 1954 to 1992. All data were collected from the Belgian National Institute of Statistics, For the log-linear analysis and calculation of the average annual change, only the data from 1973 to 1992 were considered.Results: The age-adjusted mortality rates (per 105) for the age group 25-84 years old increased from 0.5 in 1954 to 3.0 in 1992 in men, and from 0.8 in 1954 to 2.2 in 1992 in women. The average annual percentage change in men (-0.03%) was stable over the period 1973-1982, and increased to 4.4% over the period 1983-1992. In women, the average annual increase was 4.6% over the period 1973-1982, and continued to increase to 6.8% over the period 1983-1992. Log-linear analysis showed that the change in rates for both men and women was mainly due to an age-'drift' effect, contrary to the results of the average annual percentage in men.Conclusion: The risk of dying from CMM increased in men and women continuously over the while period irrespective of birth cohort. In both men and women, there was approximately a 20% increase in CMM mortality per 5-year period.Key words: Age-period-cohort models, time trends, epidemiological method, cutaneous malignant melanoma, mortality rates, Belgium