Naive Adaptive Behavior and the Observability of Gambles

This paper considers a class of naive adaptive learning rules in a social setting. They generalize biological selection and have become relevant in economic theory as a consequence of their use in evolutionary game models. The environment considered here is nonstrategic but includes gambles which are more or less completely observed in each period. In the long run, individuals are more averse to a gamble which is less observable, other things being equal, and may violate first-order stochastic dominance. Thus these rules need not be consistent with rational behavior in the usual sense.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: D83, C72.