Electric Vehicle (EV) Market Penetration in Countries with Rising Motorization Rates

Transition to electric vehicles is becoming increasingly significant due to climate change crisis, but it may follow different paths for developing countries as motorization rates have not reached saturation. This study introduces a novel approach for forecasting electric vehicle market penetration under increasing motorization rates. Motorization rate growth and electric vehicle market penetration are concurrently forecasted using a three-step process including estimation of (i) motorization rate based on gross domestic product forecasts by Gompertz model, (ii) number of passenger cars using population projections, and (iii) electric vehicle market penetration rate using a logistic growth model. The numerical analysis used gross domestic product estimates, population projections, and passenger car data for Turkey; the results reveals exponential growth in electric vehicle numbers until 2040, followed by a slower increase until 2060. Under different economic growth scenarios, the estimated number of electric passenger cars ranges from 19.2 to 51 million by 2060, showing a great difference due to variations in expected motorization rates. Sensitivity analyses highlight that gross domestic product per capita significantly influences electric vehicle penetration more than motorization rate saturation rates. These findings show that targeted strategies for supporting electric vehicle adoption in countries with unsaturated vehicle fleets can help policymakers shape incentives and policies. This study has a unique contribution by the methodology filling a critical modeling gap in electric vehicle penetration studies for markets with rising motorization rates. Thus, an accurate and consistent framework for predicting and planning electric vehicle adoption in different economic contexts is presented.