Predicting Seasonal Deformation Using InSAR and Machine Learning in the Permafrost Regions of the Yangtze River Source Region

Quantifying seasonal deformation is essential for accurately determining the thickness of the active layer and the distribution of water content within it, providing insights into the freeze‐thaw dynamics of permafrost environments and their sensitivity to climate change. Due to the limited hydraulic conductivity of the underlying permafrost, the freeze‐thaw processes are largely confined to the active layer, allowing for predictable seasonal deformations. This study employed Independent Component Analysis to isolate large‐scale seasonal deformation from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements taken from 2016 to 2020 in the Yangtze River Source Region (YRSR) of the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP), covering 18,500 km2. We developed dedicated machine learning (ML) models that integrate these InSAR‐derived measurements with various environmental proxies. By applying these models to the YRSR, we generated a comprehensive, full‐coverage deformation map for permafrost terrains, achieving an R2value of 0.91 and an Root Mean Squared Error of approximately 0.5 cm, thus confirming the model's strong predictability of seasonal deformation in permafrost regions. Deformation magnitude varied from less than 1 cm to over 10 cm. Our analysis suggests that terrain attributes, influenced by climate and soil conditions, are the primary factors driving these deformations. This research provides valuable insights into quantifying permafrost‐related seasonal deformation across expansive and rural landscapes. It also aids in assessing subsurface hydrological processes and the resilience and vulnerability of permafrost. The developed ML algorithm, with access to precise environmental data, is capable of forecasting seasonal deformations across the entire QTP and potentially throughout the Arctic. Seasonal ground deformation, including both subsidence and uplift, is common in areas with a layer of ground that freezes and thaws seasonally, underlain by permafrost‐a type of ground that remains at or below 0°C for at least 2 years. These deformations are crucial indicators of changes in water content and thickness of this layer, offering insights into the freeze‐thaw dynamics of cold environments and their sensitivity to climate change. However, accurately mapping ground deformation over large areas has been challenging. In this study, we developed machine learning (ML) models that use radar remote sensing data, statistical methods, and a set of environmental variables to predict these seasonal ground movements. Our models can accurately forecast seasonal deformation using readily available environmental data. We find that slope of the terrain is the main factor influencing seasonal deformation, with climate and soil conditions also playing significant roles. This research offers new ways to measure and understand ground deformation in remote permafrost regions and demonstrates how ML can be used to predict such deformations on a continental or even global scale large. Our findings provide valuable insights for environmental scientists and could help inform strategies for managing these regions under changing climatic conditions. Our results underscore the predictability of seasonal deformation with high accuracy in permafrost terrainsMachine learning models predict full‐coverage seasonal deformation with high accuracy (R2= 0.91, Root Mean Squared Error [RMSE] = 0.5 cm)Seasonal deformation is primarily determined by terrain slope and regulated by climate and soil conditions Our results underscore the predictability of seasonal deformation with high accuracy in permafrost terrains Machine learning models predict full‐coverage seasonal deformation with high accuracy (R2= 0.91, Root Mean Squared Error [RMSE] = 0.5 cm) Seasonal deformation is primarily determined by terrain slope and regulated by climate and soil conditions