Referral Patterns for People With Musculoskeletal Complaints in General Practice: An Analysis From an Australian Primary Care Database

Our objective was to examine referral patterns for people with musculoskeletal complaints presenting to Australian general practitioners (GPs). This longitudinal analysis from the Population Level Analysis Reporting (POLAR) database includes 133,279 patients with low back (≥18 years old) or neck, shoulder, and/or knee (≥45 years old) complaints seen by 4,538 GPs across 269 practices from 2014 through 2018. Referrals to allied health and medical and/or surgical specialists were included. We determined the number of patients with referrals and GPs who made referrals and examined their timing, associations, and trends over time. A total of 43,666 patients (33%) received and 3,053 GPs (67%) made at least one referral. Most referrals were to allied health (n = 25,830, 19%), followed by surgeons (n = 18,805, 14%). Surgical referrals were higher for knee complaints (n = 6,140, 24%) compared with low back, neck, and shoulder complaints (range 8%–15%). The referral category varied predominantly by body region followed by gender, socioeconomic status, and primary health network. Time to allied health referral ranged between median (interquartile range [IQR]) 14 days (0–125 days) for neck complaints and 56 days (5–177 days) for knee complaints. Surgical referrals occurred sooner for those with knee complaints (15 days, IQR 0–128 days). There was a 2.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9%–2.4%) annual increase in the proportion of allied health referrals and a 1.9% (95% CI 1.6%–2.1%) decrease in surgical referrals across all sites. One‐third of patients receive, and two‐thirds of GPs make, referrals for musculoskeletal complaints. Understanding the reasons for referral and differences between GPs who refer more and less frequently may identify factors that explain variations in practice.