Utilization of Machine Learning to Model Important Features of 30-day Readmissions following Surgery for Metastatic Spinal Column Tumors: The Influence of Frailty

Study Design Retrospective cohort studyObjective The aim of this study was to determine the relative importance and predicative power of the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) on unplanned 30-day readmission after surgical intervention for metastatic spinal column tumors.Methods All adult patients undergoing surgery for metastatic spinal column tumor were identified in the Nationwide Readmission Database from the years 2016 to 2018. Patients were categorized into 3 cohorts based on the criteria of the HFRS: Low(<5), Intermediate(5-14.9), and High(≥ 15). Random Forest (RF) classification was used to construct predictive models for 30-day patient readmission. Model performance was examined using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), and the Mean Decrease Gini (MDG) metric was used to quantify and rank features by relative importance.Results There were 4346 patients included. The proportion of patients who required any readmission were higher among the Intermediate and High frailty cohorts when compared to the Low frailty cohort (Low:33.9%vs. Intermediate:39.3%vs. High:39.2%, P < .001). An RF classifier was trained to predict 30-day readmission on all features (AUC = .60) and architecturally equivalent model trained using only ten features with highest MDG (AUC = .59). Both models found frailty to have the highest importance in predicting risk of readmission. On multivariate regression analysis, Intermediate frailty [OR:1.32, CI(1.06,1.64), P = .012] was found to be an independent predictor of unplanned 30-day readmission.Conclusion Our study utilizes machine learning approaches and predictive modeling to identify frailty as a significant risk-factor that contributes to unplanned 30-day readmission after spine surgery for metastatic spinal column metastases.