Investment suitability and path dependency perpetuate inequity in international mitigation finance toward developing countries

Developed country pledges to provide finance to developing countries for their mitigation actions sit at the heart of international climate cooperation. Currently, climate finance largely flows to big and fast-growing developing countries while low-income and vulnerable countries are underserved. Here, using wind and solar project data, we highlight inequities in the distribution of international investments in mitigation across developing countries and explore the factors that influence public and private investment flows. Results show that public actors are influenced by domestic climate policies since the Paris Agreement, while private finance flows are shaped by investment suitability conditions, which restricts access to both types of finance in the poorest countries. Further, public and private flows are strongly shaped by path dependency, generating an “investment lock-in” that perpetuates distributional inequities. Future international commitments to direct climate finance should address distributional issues to meet countries’ needs and the goals of the Paris Agreement.