Do international remittances accelerate out-farm labor migration in developing countries? A dynamic panel time-series analysis

Purpose: A major policy issue facing leaders in the developing world is whether international migration, through remittances, contributes to the development process in migrant-sending communities or impedes the efficient allocation of labor and human capital at the origin countries. This study examines the impact of remittance inflows on out-farm migration of farm labor toward the nonfarm sector. Specifically, this study shows how international migrant remittances may alter the predictions of out-farm migration models by Harris–Todaro. Design/methodology/approach: The authors use unbalanced panel time-series data on 77 developing countries between 1991 and 2010 within a dynamic panel time-series framework to estimate the impact of remittances on the out-farm migration rate. Findings: The authors find two competing effects of remittances on out-farm migration of labor in developing countries. First, remittances decelerate the out-farm migration rates by supplementing farm income and consumption expenditures. Second, remittances provide a source of investment in nonfarm activities that increase the rate of migration out of agriculture over time. Combining these effects, on average, our elasticity estimates indicate that a 10% increase in remittances reduces the migration out of agriculture, on average, by 0.5% in developing countries over time. Research limitations/implications: The authors findings align with the “developmentalist” or “optimistic” views of international migration. International migration, through remittances, help make the inevitable transition out of the farm sector smoother for developing countries. Originality/value: To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to extend the empirical literature on macro-level determinants of out-farm migration within the Harris–Todaro framework to explicitly account for the impacts of remittances inflows into developing countries that the new economics of labor migration (NELM) theory hypothesizes.