Development and validation of an individualized nomogram for predicting the high-volume (> 5) central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma

Purpose: Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) frequently presents a favorable clinical outcome, while aggressive invasiveness can also be found in some of this population. Identifying the risk clinical factors of high-volume (> 5) central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in PTMC patients could help oncologists make a better-individualized clinical decision. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the clinical characteristics of adult patients with PTC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between Jan 2010 and Dec 2015 and in one medical center affiliated to Chongqing Medical University between Jan 2018 and Oct 2020. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for high volume of CLNM in PTMC patients. Results: The male gender (OR = 2.02, 95% CI 1.46–2.81), larger tumor size (> 5 mm, OR = 1.64, 95% CI 1.13–2.38), multifocality (OR = 1.87, 95% CI 1.40–2.51), and extrathyroidal invasion (OR = 3.67; 95% CI 2.64–5.10) were independent risk factors in promoting high-volume of CLNM in PTMC patients. By contrast, elderly age (≥ 55 years) at diagnosis (OR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.40–0.81) and PTMC-follicular variate (OR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.42–0.87) were determined as the protective factors. Based on these indicators, a nomogram was further constructed with a good concordance index (C-index) of 0.702, supported by an external validating cohort with a promising C-index of 0.811. Conclusion: A nomogram was successfully established and validated with six clinical indicators. This model could help surgeons to make a better-individualized clinical decision on the management of PTMC patients, especially in terms of whether prophylactic central lymph node dissection and postoperative radiotherapy should be warranted.