Augmenting freshwater availability in mountain headwater streams: Assessing the sustainability under baseline and future climate change scenarios

Mountain headwater streams are important freshwater sources, but they are mostly intermittent and highly susceptible to climate change. This paper examines the sustainability of augmented freshwater availability in mountain headwater streams for water supply under baseline and future climate change scenarios using an integrated modeling approach. The climate change data in the 2040s (2030–2059), under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, were downscaled for the impact assessment. In the region, climate change raises the average precipitation by 5–7% and the temperature by 13–15% in the 2040s. SWAT–MODFLOW model, integrating Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT2012) and finite-difference Modular Groundwater Flow (MODFLOW) models in a single package, was used to assess the water balance. Results show that extracting a minimum of 16.2 m3/day from the sand storage and 30 m3/day from the aquifer was possible without affecting the groundwater table and water yield. The average annual catchment recharge was 6% of the precipitation under the baseline simulation. Climate change is projected to reduce the average water yield and groundwater recharge by 26% and 19%, respectively. However, the water supply-demand is significantly small compared to the exploitable rate of water in the area. This study was based on limited data, and therefore the findings need to be interpreted with caution, though the model output was validated using satellite products. Construction of a series of sand dams is suggested to maximize the benefit under the potential climate change and water supply-demand increase.