Prognosis of follicular lymphoma: a predictive model based on a retrospective analysis of 987 cases

Patients (n-987) with a histologically confirmed diagnosis of follicular lymphoma were studied with the aim of developing a prognostic model specifically devised for this type of lymphoma. We collected information on age, sex, Ann Arbor stage, number of extranodal disease sites, bone marrow (BM) involvement, bulky disease, B symptom criteria (fever, night sweats, and weight loss), performance status (PS), serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, serum albumin level, hemoglobin level, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). In the training sample of 429 patients with complete data, multivariate analysis showed that age, sex, number of extranodal sites, B symptoms, serum LDH level, and ESR were factors predictive for overall survival. Using these 6 variables, a prognostic model was devised to identify 3 groups at different risk. The 5- and 10-year survival rate was 90% and 65% for patients at low risk, respectively; 75% and 54% for patients at intermediate risk; and 38% and 11% for those at high risk (log-rank test, 86.62; P < .0001). The model was also predictive (P = .0001) in the validation sample of 265 patients with complete data only for the 6 variables used in the development of the model and even in the group of 210 patients from the validation sample uniformly treated with doxorubicin-containing regimens (P = .0001). The prognostic model appears to be very useful in identifying patients with follicular lymphoma at low, intermediate, or high risk.