A model for analyzing insect stage-frequency data when mortality varies with time

A model is developed for the analysis of insect stage-frequency data which may be applied to populations with age-dependent mortality. The analysis of stage-frequency data is divided into two steps. In the first step, the number of different mortality rates and their values are estimated. The second step provides estimates of developmental rates and variances for each developmental stage and in addition provides estimates of the number of recruits to each stage. The model may be used both in analysis and prediction of insect stage frequencies. Hence, in addition to estimating developmental and mortality rates from stage-frequency data, it may also be used as a simulation model for an insect population. The model is applied to two populations of Hemileuca oliviaeCockerell, a lepidopterous pest of New Mexico grasslands. The model identifies, in the two populations, different mortality rates that are related to plant productivity.