A Lack of Dynamic Triggering of Slow Slip and Tremor Indicates That the Shallow Cascadia Megathrust Offshore Vancouver Island Is Likely Locked

Great subduction zone earthquakes vary considerably in the updip extent of megathrust rupture. It is unclear if this diversity reflects variations in interseismic strain accumulation owing to the limited number of subduction zones with seafloor monitoring. We use a borehole seismic‐geodetic observatory installed at the updip end of the Cascadia fault offshore Vancouver Island to show that the megathrust there does not appear to slip in triggered tremor or slow‐slip events when subjected to moderate dynamic stress transients. Borehole tilt and seismic data from recent teleseismic M7.6–8.1 earthquakes demonstrate a lack of triggered slow slip above the Mw4.0 level and an absence of triggered tremor despite shear‐stress transients of 1–10 kPa that were sufficient to trigger tremor on the downdip end of the interface. Our observations are most consistent with a model in which the Cascadia fault offshore Vancouver Island is locked all the way to the trench. Subduction zone thrust faults are generally thought to contain three primary regions in terms of earthquake rupture. Both the shallowest region near the trench (depths <~5–10 km) and the deeper onshore region (depths >~35 km) are thought to fail primarily without earthquakes, while seismic slip is contained primarily within the intervening depth range (~5–35 km). In many subduction zones around the world, the deeper region has been observed to emit small amounts of seismic radiation when nonvolcanic tremor events are triggered by passing seismic waves. Similarly, the shallowest portions of a few subduction zones behave the same way. Here we study the Cascadia subduction zone with newly available subseafloor seismic and geodetic data that indicate a clear difference in behavior between the deep and shallow parts of the fault. This likely indicates that strain is accumulated across most of the breadth of the accretionary prism and that the shallow part of the fault may rupture during great earthquakes. New borehole seismic and geodetic data from the updip end of the Cascadia subduction zone show no evidence of triggered tremor or slow slip during the passage of teleseismic surface wavesThere is a clear contrast in the behavior of triggered tremor between the updip and downdip ends of the Cascadia subduction zone at Vancouver IslandBorehole tilt can rule out slow slip events at the Mw4.0 level