The need for lung transplantation in The Netherlands

Abstract: The aim of this study was to assess the future need for lung transplantation in the Netherlands in the absence of limiting factors, such as a shortage of donor organs. The need was estimated using two different methods. In method 1, estimation of the need was based on data from the Dutch lung transplantation program, collected during a 4-year period (1 April 1992 until 31 March 1996). In method 2, the need was estimated using national mortality data over a 5-year period (1987–1991) preceding the start of the Dutch lung transplantation program. The results of both methods were corrected for known factors of distortion. The number of lung transplantations needed in the Netherlands in the future was estimated to range from 50 to 80 a year, which corresponds to 3.2–5.2 transplantations per million inhabitants per year. Considering the current supply of donor lungs in the Netherlands, only about one-third of the patients in need of a lung transplant in the future will be able to receive one.