Estimating maximum magnitude earthquakes in Iraq using extreme value statistics

Extreme value theory is used to estimate maximum magnitude earthquakes in Iraq (29–38°N, 39–48°E). The seismicity file for the period 1905–1982 is used to determine the recurrence relationship as well as the parameters of Gumbel types I and III asymptotic distributions. The statistical parameters are estimated by both least squares and maximum likelihood techniques. Results show that although the least squares upper magnitude is closer in value to actual earthquake magnitude, the maximum likelihood approximation to the third distribution appears to show a better overall fit to the data sample. This result is reflected in the calculated probability of occurrence of earthquake risk over various design periods.