Grey Modeling Method and its Application in Prediction of Aviation Safety Time Series

To realize the reasonable and effective safety management and decision-making in aviation productive activity, the flight safety time series can be used to mine the statistical law for the assistant of accident prevention. Based on this purpose, Grey modeling theory is introduced in the field of the aviation safety analysis. The actual example shows that, the established GM (1, 1) model for flight mishap data of USAF has a good prediction for future years, especially for the accident data that follows or approximates the exponential law.