Short-Term Effects of Fire and Fire-Surrogate Treatments on Avian Nest Survival: A National-Scale Analysis

We examined the initial response of avian nest success to mechanical thinning, prescribed fire, and thinning/ prescribed fire combination treatments, designed to reduce fuel loads, at study sites throughout the continental USA as part of the National Fire and Fire Surrogate (FFS) Project. We modeled the daily nest survival of ground-, shrub-, tree-, and snag-nesting bird species to test for effects of: (1) overall treatment (2) specific treatment category (i.e., burn, thin, thin/burn); (3) time since treatment; and (4) study site. Of the 7 species examined, only 2 had top models that included effects of the FFS treatments, the remainder had either constant survival rates, or rates that varied only by study site. The Eastern Towhee had top models that included effects of treatment and study site, while the Red-bellied Woodpecker had top models that included effects of treatment category, time since treatment, and study site. All estimates of treatment, treatment category, and study site were statistically weak with confidence intervals including zero. The lack of clear response patterns observed in this study is likely a consequence of the variability inherent across forest types and taxonomic groups we examined. Forest managers should use our results cautiously and also be encouraged to facilitate opportunities for studies of avian nest survival as a function of fire-surrogate treatments that are regional specific, encompass longer time frames and larger spatial scales.