Oesophageal cancer mortality in Europe: paradoxical time trend in relation to smoking and drinking

The main risk factors for oesophageal cancer previously identified in western Europe are tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking. However, a study of the time trend from 1951 to 1985 of the mortality from oesophageal cancer in 17 European countries shows that, except among the younger age groups in men, oesophageal cancer had either decreased or increased only slightly in most countries. This trend differed from that of lung cancer, cirrhosis and alcohol consumption which had in general increased substantially during the period. The results strongly suggest that population-wide changes in certain undetermined risk/protective factor(s), one possibility of which is the consumption of fruit, had overridden the effect of tobacco and alcohol and resulted in a reduction of oesophageal cancer risk. Apart from further efforts to reduce smoking and drinking, studies to identify the factor(s) will be of great public health importance to the prevention of oesophageal cancer.