A SPATIAL MODEL FOR ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE EFFECTS AT AQUACULTURE SITES

This paper presents a model for the evaluation of marine sites that utilize site specific spatial datasets in the estimation of ecosystem cumulative effects. The model is motivated by the evaluation of marine sites for aquaculture. Maps of the coastal zone of Grand Manan Island, New Brunswick in the Bay of Fundy along Canada's Atlantic coast are utilized for the purpose of illustrating the model. The data sets, processed as thematic layers in a Geographic Information System (GIS) describing the marine site, represent natural resource abundance, habitat inventory, valuations from economic and recreational activities, and influence plumes from sources of effluents. The valuation methodology assigns quantitative yields by layer-area of each selected site, as well as yields for the pairwise overlapping “cumulative effects” layers of the datasets based on defined yield impact functions. Results are presented that validate the model as an effective decision support tool for defining aquaculture sites of interest.