Zum „Utilitäts“-Prinzip im Rahmen der gerichtlichen Feststellung von Blutsverwandtschaft mittels Serostatistik

A “realistic” prior probability is always based on case experience (Akten-a-priori). In serological opinions pertaining to parentage, the realistic prior probability is only one piece of information in the whole body of evidence before the judge and does not have any special significance per se. There is no such thing as a “neutral” prior probability. It either implies “ignorance,” in which case it cannot be “information,” or it must be taken in connection with the utility principle, in which case it is not a “probability.”