Metastable chaos: The transition to sustained chaotic behavior in the Lorenz model

The system of equations introduced by Lorenz to model turbulent convective flow is studied here for Rayleigh numbersr somewhat smaller than the critical value required for sustained chaotic behavior. In this regime the system is found to exhibit transient chaotic behavior. Some statistical properties of this transient chaos are examined numerically. A mean decay time from chaos to steady flow is found and its dependence uponr is studied both numerically and (very close to the criticalr) analytically.