Application of Statistical Distribution of PM10 Concentration in Air Quality Management in 5 Representative Cities of China.

Abstract: Objective: To estimate the frequency of daily average PM₁₀ concentrations exceeding the air quality standard (AQS) and the reduction of particulate matter emission to meet the AQS from the statistical properties (probability density functions) of air pollutant concentration. Methods: The daily PM₁₀ average concentration in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Xi'an was measured from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2008. The PM₁₀ concentration distribution was simulated by using the lognormal, Weibull and Gamma distributions and the best statistical distribution of PM₁₀ concentration in the 5 cities was detected using to the maximum likelihood method. Results: The daily PM₁₀ average concentration in the 5 cities was fitted using the lognormal distribution. The exceeding duration was predicted, and the estimated PM₁₀ emission source reductions in the 5 cities need to be 56.58%, 93.40%, 80.17%, 82.40%, and 79.80%, respectively to meet the AQS. Conclusion: Air pollutant concentration can be predicted by using the PM₁₀ concentration distribution, which can be further applied in air quality management and related policy making. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]