Scenario Simulation and Policy Analysis on Energy Development in Qinghai Province.

Abstract: Solving China's severe energy problems relies on the efficient implementation of energy-related policies at the provincial level. On the context of 12th Five-Year Plan, most provinces’ energy developments are faced with the double pressures, that is, the rapid economy development and energy conservation. Thus, it is necessary to explore the scenarios of energy, economic and social development on the provincial level, especially in western developing provinces. This paper proposes a framework of economy and energy system including three major components: economy growth, population and energy intensity, to identify the regional energy balance and CO2 emission by 2015. With an application to Qinghai Province, policies related to energy development can be classified into three subcategories: economic and social development, energy development, and energy saving policies. Then, five scenarios are set and simulated to explore the energy balance and CO2 emission under the constraints of economic growth and energy intensity. Results show that in Qinghai, energy demands will increase by 90.37% in 2015 with a significant adjustment in industrial structure; and the implementation of the energy saving policies in Qinghai province is necessary. Besides, increasing production of clean energy can significantly reduce the consumption of fossil fuels and the environmental impact. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]