Predicting range expansion of invasive raccoons in northern Iran using ENFA model at two different scales.

Abstract: Invasive alien species are considered to be one of the most important causes of extinction and decline of wild native species. The raccoon (Procyon lotor) is native to North and Central America but at present it also occurs in several European and Asian countries. In 1991, the raccoon was recorded for the first time in Iran from Lavandevil Wildlife Refuge. In order to examine how a variation in the extent of the study area influences habitat selection of the raccoon, we ran models at two different scales at Lavandevil Wildlife Refuge and the Gilan Province. We used the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) to describe the invasive raccoons' realized niche and to identify areas exposed to the invasion of the raccoon in northern Iran. Our results showed that the spatial distribution of the raccoon is heavily influenced by natural variables, landscape variables, and human-related variables at Lavandevil Wildlife Refuge scale and topography and vegetation variables at Gilan Province scale. This prediction indicates that the raccoon has a potential to become one of the most numerous mammals in northern Iran. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]