Stability of cooperative management of the Pacific sardine fishery under climate variability.

Abstract: Asymmetry in transboundary fish stock distribution caused by climate variability can make the stability of cooperative management challenging. Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), which exhibits extreme decadal variability in abundance and geographic distribution corresponding to water temperature regime shifts within the California Current Ecosystem, is expected to face such issues. Pacific sardine is a transboundary resource targeted by Mexican, U.S. and Canadian fisheries. Our study applies a three-agent game theoretic model that incorporates environmental effects on Pacific sardine abundance and biomass distribution. Simulations are conducted to evaluate the stability of full and partial cooperative management of the Pacific sardine fishery, under seven different climate variability scenarios. Our results show that ocean climate variability could motivate the formation of stable cooperative management outcomes for the Pacific sardine fisheries operated by Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]