Back to Search Start Over

Predictive modeling of effects under global change

Authors :
Kickert, R. N.
Krupa, S. V.
Tonella, G.
Simonov, A.
Source :
Environmental Pollution; 1998, Vol. 100 Issue 1-3, p87, 0p
Publication Year :
1998

Abstract

The status of computer simulation models from around the world for evaluating the possible ecological, environmental, and societal consequences of global change is presented in this paper. In addition, a brief synopsis of the state of the science of these impacts is included. Issues considered include future changes in climate and patterns ofland use for societal needs. Models discussed relate to vegetation (e.g. crop), soil, bio-geochemistry, water, and wildlife responses to conventional, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation. Also described are models of these responses, alone and interactively, to increased CO<subscript>2</subscript>, other air pollutants and UV-B radiation,as the state of the science allows. Further, models of land-use change are included. Additionally, global multiple sector models of environment, natural resources, human population dynamics, economics, energy, and political relations are reviewed for integrated impact assessment. To the extent available, information on computer software and hardware requirements is presented for the various models. The paper concludes with comments about using these technologies as they relate to ecological risk assessment for policy decision analysis. Such an effort is hampered by considerable uncertainties with the output of existing models, because of the uncertainties associated with input data and the definitions of their dose-response relationships. The concluding suggestions point the direction for new developments in modeling and analyses that are needed for the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
02697491
Volume :
100
Issue :
1-3
Database :
Supplemental Index
Journal :
Environmental Pollution
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
8290464