Is it possible to predict the onset of throwing shoulder injury by medical checkups of asymptomatic high school baseball players?

(Purpose) The purpose of this study is to identify the risk factors that affect the consecutive onset of throwing shoulder injury of a high school baseball team, and to calculate a regression formula that could predict the future onset. We discussed the prevention strategy. (Method) Prospective study. The subjects were 80 asymptomatic high school baseball players. We executed medical checkups and investigated who sustained a throwing shoulder injury during this half year. We performed logistic regression analysis with the medical checkup findings and the data of the onset and identified the factors that significantly affected the onset. We also calculated the odds ratio of these factors and regression formula that predict the probability of the onset of throwing shoulder injury and evaluated the regression model. (Result) 48% (38/80 cases)of the players suffered throwing shoulder injury during this half year. Among the medical checkup findings of the asymptomatic phase, past history of throwing shoulder injury, SLR, shoulder external rotation ROM, hip internal rotation ROM, heel-buttock distance and shoulder internal rotation ROM were thought to be the risk factors that were near-related to the onset of throwing shoulder injury. We calculated the regression formula using the medical checkup findings of the asymptomatic phase and we predicted the onset of throwing shoulder injury with 82% accuracy. (Conclusion) In order to prevent throwing shoulder injury, the method used in this study is useful for field players to predict the onset of throwing shoulder injury. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]