A Spatial-EF and Econometrics Model Integrated Approach to Explore Land Use Sustainable Forecast Model-in Case of Shandong Province.

Abstract: This paper constructed land use sustainable forecast model, which was based on spatial ecological footprint and econometrics model, to find an effective approach and technique for land use sustainable forecast. What''s the spatial ecological footprint(S-EF)? The paper firstly answered the question, namely the improved and expanded EF based on GIS. Then S-EF and econometrics model, such as GM(1,1), regression model were integrated to build the forecast model. As follows, the Shandong''s land use sustainable was forecasted by the above model, and the future will not be optimistic. The conflict between supply and demand of fossil energy land becomes more evident based on the time and spatial information diagram. In general, this model can be used to forecast the land use sustainable from time to space and was tested effectively; the forecast result may offer datum which are beneficial for land administrators to make land use planning and land administration. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]