Study of energy consumption prediction based on improved grey model.

Based on the premise of the first-order cumulated generating series with the character of exponential growth, the background value of grey model is improved by the predictor-correcting technique to enhance the prediction precision of grey model. The numerical experimental results show that the precision and adaptability of the grey model are improved effectively. Finally, energy demand is predicted up to 2015 using the improved model coupling with the equal dimension rolling mechanism. The forecasting result indicates that energy demand will reach up to 3. 19 billion tons of coal equivalent (BTCE) in 2010 and 3. 63 BTCE in 2015, respectively, and it will present the huge challenge in terms of the safety of energy supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]