Valuation of consequences arising from CO2 migration at candidate CCS sites in the US.

Abstract: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) represents a potentially effective means of addressing climate change. However, CCS processes create a suite of risks, including possibly injury to private and public sector interests, which will continue beyond the operational life of the project. Concerns regarding potential damages and attendant financial liability remain a barrier to commercial-scale deployment of CCS. The public dialogue on ‘liability’ as it relates to CCS has been clouded by a failure to clearly define what is at risk, and whether the consequences of such risks are material from a financial perspective. Focus on anecdotal references has contributed to unreasonable expectations and misunderstanding with respect to the amount and timing of funds necessary for the responsible deployment of CCS. Analytic evaluation of the range of potential impacts and calculation of financial consequences can illuminate: (1) the dollar amounts that need to be managed; (2) the set of circumstances under which amounts will present; and (3) the time frame over which these dollars will be needed. This paper applies an analytic framework drawn from damages estimation methodologies used in comparable contexts and incorporates risk-based probabilistic modeling to assist stakeholders in evaluating the potential consequences of CO₂ migration at three candidate CCS sites. Specifically, it presents preliminary, order-of-magnitude estimates for potential public human health impacts associated with the operational phase of CCS activities at three proposed, non-selected USDOE FutureGen sites: (1) Tuscola, Illinois; (2) Jewett, Texas; and (3) Odessa, Texas. Attendant analyses applying the same methodology currently are underway to value damages associated with environmental resources, e.g., ground water, and atmospheric releases of CO₂, as well as damages associated with the post-operational period. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]