Deployment of CCS Technologies across the Load Curve for a Competitive Electricity Market as a Function of CO2 Emissions Permit Prices.

Abstract: Consistent with other published studies, the modelling presented here reveals that baseload power plants are the first aspects of the electricity sector to decarbonize and are essentially decarbonized once CO₂ permit prices exceed a certain threshold ($90/ton CO₂ in this study). The decarbonization of baseload electricity is met by significant expansions of nuclear power and renewable energy generation technologies as well as the application of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies applied to both coal and natural gas fired power plants. Relatively little attention has been paid thus far to whether intermediate and peaking units would respond the same way to a climate policy given the very different operational and economic context that these kinds of electricity generation units operate under. In this paper, the authors discuss key aspects of the load segmentation methodology used to imbed a varying electricity demand within the GCAM (a state-of-the-art Integrated Assessment Model) energy and economic modelling framework and present key results on the role CCS technologies could play in decarbonizng subpeak and peak generation (encompassing only the top 10% of the load) and under what conditions. To do this, the authors have modelled two hypothetical climate policies that require 50% and 80% reductions in US emissions from business as usual by the middle of this century. Intermediate electricity generation is virtually decarbonized once carbon prices exceed approximately $150/ton CO₂. When CO₂ permit prices exceed $160/ton CO₂, natural gas power plants with CCS have roughly the same marketshare as conventional gas plants in serving subpeak loads. The penetration of CCS into peak load (upper 6% here) is minimal under the scenarios modeled here suggesting that CO₂ emissions from this aspect of the U.S. electricity sector would persist well into the future even with stringent CO₂ emission control policies in place. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]