Index of National Power: How to Assess the General Capacity of a Nation.

In this paper we propose a simple quantitative index of national power, which is defined as the basic capacity to compete in the international arena, and which is operationalized as the product of two components: (1) the log-transformed value of population size and (2) the level of human development, as operationalized and annually updated by the UN Development Programme. The proposed index is based on the fundamental assumption that all forms of competition are ultimately determined in part by the level of human resources available to a nation. In order to validate the usefulness of this index, we propose two simplified models (a prototype of sports competition and a measurement model in which "unmeasured" variables and error-prone observed indicators are examined together), which together allow us to use two external criterion variables that measure the relative sports capacity of most nations in the world. After establishing the validity of the metric as an interval scale, we highlight several interesting features of the existing power-hierarchy, recent changes and future prospects. The paper then discusses the broad implications of the availability of such an index for evaluating other existing and future indices of power, with a potentially different and more comprehensive focus, for using it as useful points of reference for a variety of comparative analyses, and for providing a framework with which to identify and incorporate the "winner-take-all" mechanisms inherent in almost all forms of competition, whether in sports or warfare. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]