Formerly Incarcerated Persons' Forecasts of Rearrest: An Examination of Optimistic, Pessimistic and Realistic Views of Success.

It is well known that many returning prisoners will be arrested for a new crime after release from prison. This paper examines formerly incarcerated persons' forecasts of rearrest in the next three years for themselves as well as for the "average person" released from prison using a 5-point Likert scale ranging from "very unlikely to get arrested" to "very likely to get arrested." In addition, a discrepancy score (i.e., self-enhancement bias) was computed by subtracting respondents' personal forecast from the forecast for the average prisoner. A sample of approximately 225 formerly incarcerated persons engaged in some form of reintegration-related programming in New York State completed the questionnaire. The relationship between forecasts of rearrest and a variety of variables thought to be related to recidivism (e.g., age, criminal history, criminal attitudes, social bonds, etc.) will be examined using correlation analysis and OLS regression analysis. In particular, this paper will determine if the same or different variables explain forecasts of rearrest for the respondent personally, the average prisoner, as well as for the self-enhancement bias. Implications of the findings of optimistic versus pessimistic forecasts of success for rehabilitation programming and prisoner reintegration policy and practice will be discussed. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]