Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Change.

Models are used in a variety of fields, including land change science, to better understand the dynamics of systems, to develop hypotheses that can be tested empirically, and to make predictions and/or evaluate scenarios for use in assessment activities. Modeling is an important component of each of the three foci outlined in the science plan of the Land use and cover change (LUCC) project (Turner et al., 1995) of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) and the International Human Dimensions Program (IHDP). In Focus 1, on comparative land use dynamics, models are used to help improve our understanding of the dynamics of land use that arise from human decision-making at all levels, households to nations. These models are supported by surveys and interviews of decision makers. Focus 2 emphasizes development of empirical diagnostic models based on aerial and satellite observations of spatial and temporal land cover dynamics. Finally, Focus 3 focuses specifically on the development of models of land use and cover change (LUCC) that can be used for prediction and scenario generation in the context of integrative assessments of global change. Given space limitations, we focus on spatially explicit models of LUCC. Because the majority of models of this sort are implemented at relatively local scales - sometimes called landscape scales (e.g., 1-100,000km2), we focus on these scales. These models, therefore, may not be appropriate for scaling up to continental and global scales. However, we discuss needs and prospects for models coupling crossscale dynamics towards the end of the chapter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]