PAST AND FUTURE CHANGES IN CANADIAN BOREAL WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.

The article explores the climate change in Canadian boreal forests. This is usually associated with increased drought severity and fire activity. In this context, the authors contrast 21st century forecasts of fire occurrence in the southern part of the Boreal Shield in Canada, with the historical range of the past 240 years statistically reconstructed from tree-ring width data. FireOcc and the occurrence rate of extreme fire years are evaluated with the aid of advanced methods of statistical time series analysis. The results suggest that the increase in precipitation projected toward the end of the 21st century will be insufficient to compensate for increasing temperatures and will be insufficient to maintain potential evapotranspiration at current levels.