Exposure of European biodiversity to changes in human-induced pressures

There is increasing evidence that areas with high concentrations of species tend to have high concentrations of human activities. Would this tendency be altered with projected environmental changes? We investigate this possibility using the most extensive available dataset on species distributions in Europe, providing data for 3143 species. Observed land uses were utilised to generate three indicators of anthropogenic ‘pressure’ for 1971–2000: urbanisation, cropland and grassland use intensities. Storylines describing alternative development pathways were used to create four land-use scenarios for 2021–2050. Exposure of biodiversity to human activities was measured as changes in the degree of pressure recorded in hypothetical reserve networks selected to maximize the representation of plant, breeding bird, mammal, amphibian, and reptile species. In all socio-economic scenarios there was a tendency for increasing urbanisation and decreasing cropland intensities within selected conservation areas. Pressures arising from increasing grassland use were variable across scenarios and taxa. Our results challenge the idea that a single development strategy might provide reduced impacts in all regions and taxonomic groups. We show that impacts are likely to be complex and that tradeoffs might exist among development strategies. Nevertheless, results are contingent on the data, scale, and type of analyses conducted and further research is required to assess the impacts of alternative human-development scenarios. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]