Are All US Urban Areas Becoming Los Angeles? New Findings About Urban Growth and Development.

Since 1920 the implicit and explicit urban model of growth in the United States has been that of concentric growth, the "Chicago Model." Recently, this model of urban growth and change has come under attack by the "Los Angeles" school of urban studies, which postulates that urban growth is now much less patterned spatially and instead can be seen as nucleated and random. Based upon more recent growth patterns, it relies much more upon the experience of the West, including Los Angeles, but also Las Vegas and other cities. With the advent of data from the National Historical Geographical Information System (NHGIS), small area (census tract level) data on the development of about 60 urban areas now exist for the decennial censuses from 1940 to 2000, some 19 of these from 1930, and some 10 from 1920, and some limited information back to 1910 for eight of these cities. Using this newly available data this paper examines the actual pattern of urban growth in the United States from the early 20th Century to 2000. Though growth through 1940 was mainly outward as population increased, even then it was not completely uniform. From 1940 to 1970 growth largely continued outward, but with even less uniformity. Since 1970 growth is much less patterned. Both the concentric Chicago Model and the unpatterned Los Angeles school should give way to a more nuance and complex analysis of urban growth taking into account both the period and the place where growth or decline is occurring ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]