Ahead of Time Prediction of Decorated Particleboard Production Disruptions and Defects Using Single and Multi-Target AutoML.

This paper proposes a Machine Learning (ML) approach to perform an Ahead-of-Time (AoT) prediction of decorated particle-board production disruptions and defects. We worked with a Portuguese company that is adopting the Industry 4.0 concept aiming to improve their decorated particleboard production planning (e.g., reducing production time and waste of materials). This company's business needs are addressed in terms of two nontrivial binary Classification tasks (production disruptions and defects). The AoT prediction is achieved by using only input attributes available before the execution of the production process. To reduce the modeling effort, we focus on Automated ML (AutoML) methods, under two main approaches: Single-Target Classification (STC) and Multi-Target Classification (MTC). The former is achieved by adopting the popular H2O AutoML tool, while the latter adopts a deep learning neural network automatically tuned by using a Bayesian search. The computational experiments adopted a realistic rolling window evaluation over recently collected industrial data (comprising 14 months). Overall, interesting predictive results were achieved by both AutoML approaches, outperforming a baseline Decision Tree method. In addition, an eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) method based on a Sensitivity Analysis (SA) was adopted, allowing the identification of the most relevant inputs, which is valuable knowledge to support the decorated particleboard production planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]