Deriving a justified budget for peatland rewetting – Applying the German coal phase-out as a blueprint.

Carbon emissions of peatlands drained for agriculture and forestry contribute more than 7 % to total GHG emissions in various countries worldwide. Hence, reducing these emissions by ending peatland drainage is a significant contribution to a transition towards carbon neutrality and being in line with the Paris Agreement. To achieve this goal, swift action is needed. Using Germany as a case study, we scrutinize whether the German coal phase-out can serve as a 'blueprint' to end drainage on agriculturally used peatlands, using six categories (political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal). We also calculate a politically justified budget for a peatland drainage phase-out comparable to the coal phase-out in terms of the socially acceptable mitigation of CO 2 emissions. Our results suggest that the current pace of rewetting is too slow in comparison to a rewetting path following the Paris Agreement and would create an area gap of about 560,000 ha and a resulting CO 2 emission gap of 84.6–148 Mt CO 2 by 2029. We show that both, peatland drainage phase-out and coal phase-out, are socio-technical transitions which require governmental intervention and a guided-level perspective. For a governed peatland drainage phase-out in Germany which is 1.5°C compatible, we determine a politically justified total budget between 13.8 and 16 billion €. • The phase-out approach could be well suited to end peatland drainage as it has been for the coal phase-out. • The PESTLE approach underlines the far-reaching changes of peatland rewetting along six dimensions. • Phasing out drainage-based agriculture on peatlands is a socio-technical transition. • We determine a politically justified total budget of 14 and 16 billion € for the peatland drainage phase-out in Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]