Trade liberalization and women's marriage and fertility decisions in Vietnam.

• We hypothesize that reduced self-employment delays marriage and childbirth. • Empirical evidence shows US-Vietnam trade reduces self-employment for both genders. • Post-2012, women experienced a more significant decline in self-employment. • Survival analysis shows trade exposure reduces the risk of marriage and childbirth. • Nevertheless, trade exposure increases marriage and children for women over 40. This study investigates the impact of a large demand shock driven by the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) in 2001 on the timing of women's marital decisions and first childbirth experiences in Vietnam. We hypothesize that the reduction in women's and men's self-employment would delay family formation and childbirth, with the ultimate impact on marriage remaining ambiguous. Analyzing data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys, we find that both men and women are less likely to be self-employed in the face of a substantial trade shock. Notably, the decreasing impact on women's self-employment becomes more pronounced than that for men post-2012, a decade after the agreement's enforcement. Employing the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey and survival analysis, we empirically demonstrate that increased exposure to trade postpones women's timing of marriage and first childbirth. On average, in 2013, the BTA resulted in a 7.39- and 7.42 %-point decrease in the probability of entering marriage and becoming a mother, respectively. We also present suggestive evidence that increased exposure to trade liberalization eventually increases the likelihood of marriage and the number of children among women over 40. The findings in this study imply that policy promoting trade liberalization should consider its extensive impacts on young labor force's family formation through change in their individual economic prospects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]