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Business Cycle Downturn Likelihood Estimation for Ciudad Juarez.
- Source :
- Journal of Applied Business & Economics; 2023, Vol. 25 Issue 6, p47-56, 10p
- Publication Year :
- 2023
-
Abstract
- A monthly frequency metropolitan business cycle downturn likelihood equation is estimated for Ciudad Juarez. The binary index of economic conditions is based upon monthly IMMEX export oriented manufacturing employment. A dynamic probit methodology is used for parameter estimation. Continuous explanatory variables include a 1-year minus 1-month Mexico interest rate spread, a 2015 = 100 weighted real exchange rate index, and a 10-year minus 3-month USA interest rate spread. Parameter estimation results confirm the various hypotheses examined. However, model simulation outcomes are less favorable with the results indicating that accurate forecasting of the post-2010 business cycles may require additional refinement to the index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1499691X
- Volume :
- 25
- Issue :
- 6
- Database :
- Supplemental Index
- Journal :
- Journal of Applied Business & Economics
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 174732188
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.33423/jabe.v25i6.6571