Co-benefit scenario analysis on replacing aviation kerosene with sustainable aviation fuels in Africa.

Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) are considered one of the potential ways for airlines to reduce emissions. However, African airlines may need more support using SAFs in underdeveloped regions. This paper calculates the carbon emissions from the international routes in Africa from 2019 to 2021 through the Modified Fuel Percentage Method (MFPM) and the ICAO standard method. The error rate is about 4.10%. Then, we predict the carbon emissions for each route and airline under different epidemic recovery paths and analyze the potential subsidies, the impact of SAFs price adjustment, and carbon trading price changes. It can be found that the more extensive the overall carbon emission base, the higher the cost of using SAFs. In addition, the higher the SAFs mixing ratio, the more the cost will increase. The average subsidy to promote SAFs will be 3492.82–3784.74 million dollars at a 50% mixed ratio. By 2025, if only the carbon price is not lower than 12.84 times the current price, or the SAF price is 1.412 times lower than the current aviation kerosene price, the African airlines may promote the SAFs. • Cost-benefit analysis of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) in Africa aviation industry is done. • The average subsidy to promote SAFs will be 3492.82–3784.74 million dollars at a 50% mixed ratio. • Only the carbon price is not lower than 12.84 times, or the SAF price is 1.412 times lower, the African airlines may promote the SAFs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]